EUR-USD Forecast: Market Is Not Quite As Analysts Said, No Gurranty For The Moment

Things aren't improving as wanted. Though not a disastor, not quite good time to predict next financial situation. As US economy is looking for ending trade war with China, in EU - Brexit issue.


U.S. China Trade War


The yearlong U.S. China trade war, which seems to be in its final stages. Beijing will promise to buy more American goods and take a harder stance on technology transfers and tariffs will be lifted.


Donald Trump's trade warfare with China has kept a path of economical wreckage across American companies from soybean farms to vehicle manufacturers. But as the Trump administration sends signals in regards to a potential trade deal with Beijing.


U.K. Brexit Delayed


Prime Minister Theresa May declared a procedure where Parliament may instruct the government to require an expansion of Article 50, postponing Brexit. This switch, alongside the determination of the opposition Labour Party to accept another referendum, delivered Sterling skyrocketing and got a good impact also on the euro.


It's important to keep in mind that the euro-zone also offers too much to lose from a difficult Brexit which European market urged May to require a Brexit expansion.


 


U.S. Non-Firm Payroll


The first significant event of the week assists as a hint to the previous one. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is a forward-looking measure for the major sector in United States and also provides direction for the vacancy report. The strategy slipped to 56.7 in January, reflecting the trump government shutdown within the slowdown. Markit's last PMIs are also appealing.


Latest Home Sales amount is due at meantime and can provide further insights in to the issues of the real estate sector. Sales of new homes proceeded to go against the tendency in November and increased to 657K annualized. The related data for Dec/2018 arrives now.


Another hint for the Non-Farm Payrolls is released on Wednesday. The ADP NFP arrived at 213K in January, much more than have been expected. The stat for the private sector is not necessarily 100% correlated to the private sector area of the official NFP, but this data has been quite significant lately.


Technical Analysis


EUR/USD technical interface remains bearish but the chart had moved up to a higher range.Momentum remains to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50, not going anywhere fast. The pair trades below the 60-day Simple Moving Average after failing to settle above the line in the 28th day of February.

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